中商情報網訊:2025年7月,蔬菜價格小幅上漲。蔬菜在田面積高于去年同期,穩產保供的基礎較為牢固。冷涼蔬菜種植面積擴大,前期推遲上市的品種陸續進入市場,蔬菜供應總量充足。但受夏季高溫多雨天氣的影響,蔬菜采收難度加大,存儲、保鮮和運輸成本(ben)增(zeng)加,預(yu)計后期蔬菜價格將進(jin)入季節(jie)性上行通道。

(一)蔬菜價格小幅上漲。
7月份,農業農村部監測的28種蔬菜全國平均批發價(jia)每公斤4.38元,環比(bi)漲0.5%,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)跌(die)8.6%。分品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)看,環比(bi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)14種(zhong)(zhong)上漲,14種(zhong)(zhong)下跌(die)。其中,生菜(cai)(cai)(漲19.8%)、黃瓜(漲13.6%)等(deng)(deng)漲幅(fu)(fu)較大(da),南(nan)瓜(跌(die)18.2%)、冬瓜(跌(die)16.0%)等(deng)(deng)跌(die)幅(fu)(fu)較大(da)。主(zhu)要(yao)原因:一是(shi)北方(fang)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)主(zhu)產區(qu)供應(ying)能力(li)不斷加(jia)強,疊(die)加(jia)冷(leng)涼地區(qu)白蘿卜等(deng)(deng)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)的擴種(zhong)(zhong),蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)供應(ying)整體較為寬松(song),價(jia)格(ge)(ge)低于常年(nian)水平(ping);二是(shi)本(ben)月全國大(da)部(bu)分地區(qu)降雨較常年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)偏多,影響蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)生長及采摘、運輸,生菜(cai)(cai)、韭菜(cai)(cai)、菠菜(cai)(cai)等(deng)(deng)葉(xie)類菜(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上漲明(ming)顯;同(tong)(tong)時,黃瓜、西紅(hong)柿等(deng)(deng)部(bu)分品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)正值換茬期(qi),區(qu)域性(xing)、階段性(xing)供應(ying)銜接(jie)出現缺口,價(jia)格(ge)(ge)環比(bi)有所上升。
(二)上半年,蔬菜進出口量同比均增。
6月份蔬(shu)菜進(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)4萬(wan)噸(dun),環比(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)63.4%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)44.7%,進(jin)口(kou)(kou)額(e)0.86億(yi)(yi)美元,環比(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)52.5%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)30.3%;出(chu)口(kou)(kou)蔬(shu)菜138.54萬(wan)噸(dun),環比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)5.1%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.4%,出(chu)口(kou)(kou)額(e)13.78億(yi)(yi)美元,環比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.6%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)16.9%;貿易(yi)順差12.92億(yi)(yi)美元,環比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)8.7%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)18.9%。1—6月累計進(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)47.89萬(wan)噸(dun),同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)91.3%,進(jin)口(kou)(kou)額(e)8.11億(yi)(yi)美元,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)25.0%;主要(yao)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)來源為(wei)印度(占(zhan)(zhan)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)的59.3%)、緬(mian)甸(dian)(占(zhan)(zhan)10.7%)、老(lao)撾(占(zhan)(zhan)10.2%)、越南(占(zhan)(zhan)7.6%);進(jin)口(kou)(kou)蔬(shu)菜品類(lei)中,辣椒(jiao)及制(zhi)品進(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)較為(wei)顯(xian)著,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)93.3%;出(chu)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)738.48萬(wan)噸(dun),同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)8.1%,出(chu)口(kou)(kou)額(e)83.47億(yi)(yi)美元,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)6.9%;主要(yao)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)日本(占(zhan)(zhan)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)的12.0%)、越南(占(zhan)(zhan)9.9%)、韓國(占(zhan)(zhan)9.3%)、馬(ma)來西亞(占(zhan)(zhan)7.6%);出(chu)口(kou)(kou)蔬(shu)菜品類(lei)中,大蒜、菌類(lei)、番茄及制(zhi)品出(chu)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)均有所增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia),分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)5.0%、3.6%、1.8%;貿易(yi)順差75.36億(yi)(yi)美元,同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)9.3%。
(三)預計后期蔬菜價格進入季節性上行區間。
蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)在(zai)田(tian)面積(ji)和產量均有所增(zeng)(zeng)加,7月份(fen)全國(guo)蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)在(zai)田(tian)面積(ji)1.1億(yi)畝(mu),同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)加1.0%,蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)穩產保供(gong)的(de)基礎較為牢固(gu)。隨著蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)供(gong)應進入(ru)夏季(ji)模式,北方及(ji)高(gao)原(yuan)冷涼蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)逐漸(jian)進入(ru)采收旺季(ji),南瓜、茄子(zi)等品種供(gong)貨量加大,蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)整(zheng)體供(gong)應充足。據中國(guo)氣象局預測,8月份(fen)我國(guo)大部分地(di)區氣溫接(jie)近(jin)常(chang)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)到(dao)偏(pian)高(gao),多(duo)地(di)降水較常(chang)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)偏(pian)多(duo),高(gao)溫高(gao)濕(shi)環(huan)境(jing)不僅影響蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)生長,也對蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)存(cun)儲、保鮮和運輸提出更高(gao)要(yao)求,增(zeng)(zeng)加蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)流(liu)通成本,拉動(dong)蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)價(jia)格上(shang)漲。總的(de)來看,預計后期(qi)蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)價(jia)格將逐步進入(ru)季(ji)節性上(shang)行(xing)區間。
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