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中商情報網訊：2025年8月，國內外油料價格下跌，食用植物油價格以漲為主。國內市場：受進口成本增加及供給趨緊影響，國產油菜籽價格預計止跌企穩。花生即將迎來集中上市，價格以穩為主。食用植物油進入消費旺季，短期內價格有望繼續上漲。國際市場：受出口限制影響，加拿大油菜籽價格預計繼續下跌。主產國生物柴油需求預期(qi)增加以及出(chu)口良好(hao)，短期(qi)內繼續支撐棕(zong)櫚油價(jia)格(ge)。

（一）國產油料價格小幅下跌，食用植物油價格以漲為主。

本月(yue)國(guo)內油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)仍處于消費(fei)淡(dan)季(ji)，價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)小(xiao)幅(fu)走(zou)低(di)；新(xin)季(ji)花(hua)(hua)生(sheng)陸續上(shang)市(shi)(shi)，成交(jiao)總(zong)體清淡(dan)，價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)穩中略(lve)降(jiang)。8月(yue)份(fen)，湖(hu)北地區(qu)油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)入廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)斤2.6元(yuan)，環比跌(die)3.7%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比跌(die)4.1%；山(shan)東地區(qu)花(hua)(hua)生(sheng)仁(ren)入廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)斤3.8元(yuan)，環比跌(die)0.3%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比跌(die)9.5%。受(shou)油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)進口(kou)預期減(jian)少影響(xiang)，國(guo)內菜(cai)(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)油(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)小(xiao)幅(fu)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)；受(shou)國(guo)際(ji)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)食(shi)用植物油(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)走(zou)勢影響(xiang)，加之(zhi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)需求逐步恢復，國(guo)內豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)、棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)明顯上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)。8月(yue)份(fen)，山(shan)東三級(ji)豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)(chang)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)8423元(yuan)，環比漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)5.7%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)13.2%；天津港24度棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)到港價(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)9457元(yuan)，環比漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)6.1%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)19.0%；湖(hu)北三級(ji)菜(cai)(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)油(you)(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)10076元(yuan)，環比漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.4%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)18.4%；山(shan)東一(yi)級(ji)花(hua)(hua)生(sheng)油(you)(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)15000元(yuan)，環比跌(die)0.5%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)3.1%。

（二）國際油菜籽價格下跌，食用植物油價格上漲。

近期商務部公(gong)布了對原產于加(jia)拿(na)大的進口油(you)(you)(you)菜籽進行反傾銷立案(an)調查的初步裁定(ding)結果，自8月(yue)(yue)14日(ri)起，加(jia)拿(na)大出口至中國的油(you)(you)(you)菜籽在報(bao)關(guan)時需(xu)繳納75.8%的保(bao)證金。受此影(ying)響，加(jia)拿(na)大油(you)(you)(you)菜籽價(jia)(jia)格(ge)大幅下跌。受美(mei)(mei)國和印度尼西亞(ya)生物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)需(xu)求預期明顯增加(jia)，以及棕櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)出口需(xu)求較好(hao)等影(ying)響，國際市場(chang)豆油(you)(you)(you)、棕櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)不同(tong)程(cheng)度上漲(zhang)(zhang)。8月(yue)(yue)份，加(jia)拿(na)大油(you)(you)(you)菜籽CNF價(jia)(jia)月(yue)(yue)均價(jia)(jia)（離岸(an)價(jia)(jia)＋運費）每噸(dun)553美(mei)(mei)元，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)跌5.3%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)7.8%；南(nan)美(mei)(mei)豆油(you)(you)(you)CNF價(jia)(jia)月(yue)(yue)均價(jia)(jia)每噸(dun)1159美(mei)(mei)元，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)1.0%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)19.4%；馬來西亞(ya)24度棕櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)離岸(an)CNF價(jia)(jia)月(yue)(yue)均價(jia)(jia)每噸(dun)1080美(mei)(mei)元，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)5.6%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)16.1%。

（三）加拿大油菜籽到岸稅后價低于國內，價差較上月擴大。

8月(yue)份，9%關稅(shui)(shui)下的加拿大油(you)菜籽到我國口(kou)岸的稅(shui)(shui)后價(jia)格每(mei)斤2.42元，比國內油(you)菜籽入廠價(jia)每(mei)斤低0.18元，價(jia)差比上(shang)(shang)月(yue)擴(kuo)大0.04元；天津口(kou)岸的進(jin)口(kou)豆油(you)稅(shui)(shui)后價(jia)每(mei)斤4.97元，比當地國產(chan)豆油(you)出廠價(jia)每(mei)斤高0.76元，價(jia)差比上(shang)(shang)月(yue)縮小0.10元。

（四）1—7月累計，我國食用油籽進口量增額減，食用植物油進口量減額增。

據海關(guan)統計(ji)，7月(yue)份我國(guo)進(jin)口食(shi)(shi)用(yong)油(you)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)1203.46萬(wan)噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)減(jian)4.7%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增14.2%；進(jin)口食(shi)(shi)用(yong)植物(wu)(wu)油(you)53.44萬(wan)噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)減(jian)23.2%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)17.1%。1—7月(yue)累計(ji)，我國(guo)進(jin)口食(shi)(shi)用(yong)油(you)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)6493.94萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增2.6%，進(jin)口額(e)299.71億美元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)10.8%；進(jin)口食(shi)(shi)用(yong)植物(wu)(wu)油(you)372.09萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)10.0%，進(jin)口額(e)45.52億美元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增10.4%。其中，油(you)菜籽(zi)(zi)(zi)進(jin)口208.40萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)26.4%，主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)來(lai)自(zi)加(jia)拿大（占(zhan)(zhan)94.8%）、俄羅(luo)斯（占(zhan)(zhan)2.6%）、蒙(meng)古（占(zhan)(zhan)2.4%）；棕櫚油(you)進(jin)口125.24萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)37.7%，主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)來(lai)自(zi)印度(du)尼西亞（占(zhan)(zhan)84.8%）、馬來(lai)西亞（占(zhan)(zhan)15.1%）；菜籽(zi)(zi)(zi)油(you)進(jin)口130.92萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增24.7%，主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)來(lai)自(zi)俄羅(luo)斯（占(zhan)(zhan)57.1%）、白俄羅(luo)斯（占(zhan)(zhan)13.2%）、加(jia)拿大（占(zhan)(zhan)10.3%）、阿(a)聯酋（占(zhan)(zhan)9.1%）；豆油(you)進(jin)口9.80萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)41.7%。

（五）全球油籽、食用植物油庫存消費比較上年度均下降。

據美國農業部（USDA）8月份預測，2025/26年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)，全球油(you)籽(zi)產量6.9億(yi)噸，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)1.2%；消費(fei)量6.87億(yi)噸，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)2.6%；貿(mao)易量2.14億(yi)噸，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)1.6%；期末(mo)(mo)庫(ku)存(cun)1.44億(yi)噸，與上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)持平；庫(ku)存(cun)消費(fei)比(bi)21.0%，與上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)下降0.5個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。全球食用植物油(you)產量2.35億(yi)噸，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)2.6%；消費(fei)量2.3億(yi)噸，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)2.7%；貿(mao)易量8700萬噸，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)1.0%；期末(mo)(mo)庫(ku)存(cun)2956萬噸，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)減1.8%；庫(ku)存(cun)消費(fei)比(bi)12.9%，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)下降0.6個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。

（六）國產油料價格止跌企穩，食用植物油價格繼續上漲。

國(guo)(guo)內市(shi)(shi)場(chang)：受進口(kou)油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)籽繳納保證金及下游(you)菜(cai)(cai)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)需求(qiu)逐步增加(jia)影響(xiang)，國(guo)(guo)產油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)籽價(jia)格(ge)短期內受到(dao)較強(qiang)支(zhi)撐。花生即將(jiang)迎來集(ji)中上市(shi)(shi)，考(kao)慮到(dao)需求(qiu)恢復性(xing)增加(jia)，預計價(jia)格(ge)以穩為主。9月份(fen)迎來開學季，加(jia)之中秋(qiu)、國(guo)(guo)慶雙節(jie)備貨需求(qiu)逐步釋放，有利于支(zhi)撐國(guo)(guo)內食(shi)用植(zhi)物(wu)油(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格(ge)繼續上漲。受原料(liao)進口(kou)減少及階段(duan)性(xing)供(gong)給(gei)偏緊影響(xiang)，菜(cai)(cai)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格(ge)漲幅預計相對明(ming)顯。國(guo)(guo)際市(shi)(shi)場(chang)：受出(chu)口(kou)限制(zhi)影響(xiang)，加(jia)拿大油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)籽價(jia)格(ge)預計繼續下跌(die)。受主產國(guo)(guo)生物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)需求(qiu)預期增加(jia)影響(xiang)，棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)、豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格(ge)短期內有望繼續得到(dao)支(zhi)撐。

更多資料請參考中商產業研究院發布的《2025-2030年中國油料及投資戰略咨詢報告》，同時中商產業研究院還提供、產業情報、行業研究報告、、行業地位證明、、、產業鏈招商圖譜、產業招商指引、、“十五五”規劃等咨詢服務。