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中商情報網訊：2025年9月，生豬和豬肉價格繼續下跌。受二季度以來全國新生仔豬數量持續增加影響，生豬出欄進入全年高峰期，供給將繼續增長。11月份開始南方地區將陸續腌制臘肉，豬肉消費(fei)需(xu)求季節性增長，價格(ge)有望(wang)季節性回升，總體窄幅波動。

（一）生豬價格繼續下跌。

標豬出欄量繼續增加，豬價旺季不旺導致前期壓欄大豬恐慌性出欄，豬肉供應明顯增多。豬肉消費需求提振有限，生豬及豬肉價格旺季疲軟，繼續下跌。部分地區生豬養殖出現虧損，仔豬價格跌幅加大。據農業農村部數據，1—8月累計，規模以上生豬屠宰企業(ye)屠宰(zai)量2.49億頭(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)17.4%，其中，8月份屠宰(zai)量3350萬頭(tou)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)5.8%，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)37.2%。8月份能繁母豬存欄環(huan)(huan)比(bi)減0.1%，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)2.6%。9月份豬肉(rou)集(ji)貿(mao)市(shi)場價為(wei)每(mei)(mei)公斤24.50元，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)跌1.9%，同(tong)比(bi)跌22.0%；生豬集(ji)貿(mao)市(shi)場價每(mei)(mei)公斤13.81元，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)跌3.8%，同(tong)比(bi)跌29.9%；仔(zi)豬集(ji)貿(mao)市(shi)場價每(mei)(mei)公斤30.06元，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)跌10.6%，同(tong)比(bi)跌27.5%。

（二）豬糧比價降至盈虧平衡點以下。

生豬價格跌幅加大，飼料價格小幅上漲，豬糧比價降至6:1以下，部分地區養殖場戶已經出現虧損。據國家發展改革委監測，9月份豬糧比價為5.89:1，比上月下降0.06個點。9月份全國飼用玉米價格(ge)為每公斤2.49元(yuan)(yuan)，環比(bi)(bi)跌(die)0.4%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)跌(die)0.4%；育(yu)肥豬配合飼料價格(ge)為每公斤3.39元(yuan)(yuan)，環比(bi)(bi)持平(ping)(ping)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)跌(die)1.7%。據行業監測，9月(yue)份，自繁(fan)自養模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)下平(ping)(ping)均(jun)每出欄一(yi)頭生(sheng)豬盈(ying)利(li)38元(yuan)(yuan)，9月(yue)下旬開始(shi)出現虧損(sun)，外購仔豬育(yu)肥模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)下平(ping)(ping)均(jun)每出欄一(yi)頭生(sheng)豬虧損(sun)200元(yuan)(yuan)左右。

（三）1—8月累計，豬肉進口量額同比均增加。

據海關(guan)統計(ji)，8月(yue)份(fen)我國(guo)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)冷(leng)鮮(xian)(xian)凍豬肉(rou)8.17萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)7.5%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)12.5%；進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額1.68億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)8.7%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)10.6%；出(chu)口(kou)(kou)量0.34萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)5.2%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)59.2%；出(chu)口(kou)(kou)額0.13億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)持(chi)平，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)30.0%。進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)豬雜碎9.71萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)6.9%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)9.8%；進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額2.11億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)6.2%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)11.3%。1—8月(yue)累計(ji)，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)冷(leng)鮮(xian)(xian)凍豬肉(rou)70.84萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.9%；進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額14.35億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)5.7%；出(chu)口(kou)(kou)量2.47萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)39.5%；出(chu)口(kou)(kou)額0.98億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)34.2%；貿易逆差(cha)13.37億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)4.1%。進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)豬雜碎81.11萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.9%，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額17.39億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.2%。

（四）歐盟豬肉價格小幅下跌，美國豬肉價格小幅上漲。

受歐盟豬(zhu)肉(rou)產(chan)(chan)量增長、出口(kou)受阻等因素影(ying)響，歐盟豬(zhu)肉(rou)價(jia)格連續(xu)3個月呈(cheng)現跌(die)勢。美(mei)(mei)國豬(zhu)肉(rou)產(chan)(chan)量同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)，盡管出口(kou)小幅下(xia)降(jiang)，但豬(zhu)肉(rou)價(jia)格依然(ran)維持漲(zhang)勢。9月份，美(mei)(mei)國豬(zhu)肉(rou)切塊批發價(jia)格為(wei)每(mei)(mei)英(ying)擔118.00美(mei)(mei)元，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)2.6%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)24.4%；51%—52%瘦肉(rou)豬(zhu)價(jia)格為(wei)每(mei)(mei)英(ying)擔79.50美(mei)(mei)元，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)2.4%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)29.8%。歐盟豬(zhu)肉(rou)批發價(jia)格每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)1976.64歐元，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)2.0%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)3.3%。

（五）豬價有望止跌回升。

從生產端(duan)(duan)看，二季(ji)度以來新(xin)生仔(zi)豬(zhu)(zhu)數量增長，將(jiang)帶動(dong)四(si)季(ji)度生豬(zhu)(zhu)出(chu)欄(lan)(lan)量進(jin)(jin)入高峰(feng)。前期壓欄(lan)(lan)大豬(zhu)(zhu)出(chu)清，二次育肥(fei)明顯(xian)減(jian)少，生豬(zhu)(zhu)出(chu)欄(lan)(lan)節奏逐(zhu)漸平穩，豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)供給增幅(fu)低于出(chu)欄(lan)(lan)增幅(fu)。從消(xiao)費端(duan)(duan)看，隨著氣溫(wen)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，南方地(di)區將(jiang)會(hui)陸續開展(zhan)臘肉(rou)(rou)腌制，將(jiang)有效提振(zhen)豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)消(xiao)費。從貿易(yi)端(duan)(duan)看，受對原(yuan)產于歐(ou)盟的進(jin)(jin)口豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)及豬(zhu)(zhu)副產品實施(shi)臨時反傾銷措施(shi)，豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)進(jin)(jin)口量可能會(hui)進(jin)(jin)一步下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)。總體(ti)看，預計生豬(zhu)(zhu)及豬(zhu)(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)價格四(si)季(ji)度中后期有望止(zhi)跌(die)回升、窄(zhai)幅(fu)波動(dong)。

更多資料請參考中商產業研究院發布的《2025-2030年中(zhong)國豬肉及投資戰略咨詢報(bao)告(gao)》，同時中商產業研究院還提供、產業情報、行業研究報告、、行業地位證明、、、產業鏈招商圖譜、產業招商指引、、“十五五”規劃等咨詢服務。