中(zhong)商情報網訊:2024年10月,國(guo)內(nei)油(you)(you)料(liao)價(jia)(jia)格穩中(zhong)有(you)跌,國(guo)際(ji)油(you)(you)料(liao)油(you)(you)脂價(jia)(jia)格均上(shang)漲(zhang)。隨著氣溫(wen)降低,國(guo)內(nei)食(shi)用植(zhi)物油(you)(you)消(xiao)費(fei)回暖,油(you)(you)廠開機率逐步回升,支(zhi)撐油(you)(you)籽價(jia)(jia)格止跌企(qi)穩;植(zhi)物油(you)(you)產量逐步增加,價(jia)(jia)格漲(zhang)幅(fu)有(you)限。全球食(shi)用植(zhi)物油(you)(you)庫存(cun)消(xiao)費(fei)比下降,棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)進入季節性生(sheng)產淡季,泰國(guo)限制棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)出口,短期(qi)內(nei)大宗植(zhi)物油(you)(you)供給偏緊將(jiang)支(zhi)撐國(guo)際(ji)價(jia)(jia)格維持上(shang)漲(zhang)走勢。
(一)國內油料價格穩中有跌,食用植物油價格漲跌分化
受(shou)(shou)秋收油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)集中上市、國(guo)際油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格上漲(zhang)(zhang)等(deng)因素(su)影響,國(guo)內(nei)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格平(ping)穩。花(hua)生(sheng)上市量增加,價(jia)格顯著下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)。10月份,湖北油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)進廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)每(mei)(mei)(mei)斤2.65元(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)持(chi)平(ping),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)15.9%;山(shan)東花(hua)生(sheng)仁(ren)入廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)每(mei)(mei)(mei)斤3.73元(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)10.3%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)22.1%。受(shou)(shou)國(guo)際價(jia)格上漲(zhang)(zhang)帶動,國(guo)內(nei)豆(dou)(dou)油(you)(you)(you)、菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)油(you)(you)(you)、棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格均上漲(zhang)(zhang)。花(hua)生(sheng)油(you)(you)(you)受(shou)(shou)原料價(jia)格下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die),以及國(guo)慶假期(qi)過后消費(fei)短時回落(luo)等(deng)因素(su)的綜合影響,價(jia)格下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)。10月份,山(shan)東三級豆(dou)(dou)油(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)(chang)均價(jia)每(mei)(mei)(mei)噸(dun)8154元(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)5.8%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.4%;天津港24度棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)到港價(jia)每(mei)(mei)(mei)噸(dun)9160元(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)11.3%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)24.9%;湖北三級菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)油(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)每(mei)(mei)(mei)噸(dun)9801元(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)6.1%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)6.8%;山(shan)東一級花(hua)生(sheng)油(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)(chang)價(jia)每(mei)(mei)(mei)噸(dun)13957元(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)2.7%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)14.0%。
(二)國際油料油脂價格均上漲
歐(ou)盟等(deng)地區進口油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)數量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia),據歐(ou)盟委員會(hui)數據,截至10月25日,2024/25年度(du)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)進口量(liang)(liang)(liang)175萬(wan)噸,較上(shang)年度(du)同(tong)期增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)8萬(wan)噸。全球油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)貿易量(liang)(liang)(liang)和消費(fei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia),帶動國際(ji)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲(zhang)。棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)逐(zhu)步進入(ru)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)淡季,產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)下(xia)降,據南部半島棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)壓(ya)榨商(shang)協會(hui)(SPPOMA)監測(ce)10月棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減少7.3%,出口量(liang)(liang)(liang)仍(reng)大(da)幅(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia),據船運調查機構SGS監測(ce)10月出口量(liang)(liang)(liang)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)21.1%。產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)減少而出口量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia),支撐棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)等(deng)大(da)宗植物(wu)油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲(zhang)。10月份,加(jia)(jia)(jia)拿大(da)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)CNF價(jia)(jia)(jia)月均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(離(li)岸(an)價(jia)(jia)(jia)+運費(fei))每(mei)噸532美(mei)元(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)2.3%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)跌9.8%;南美(mei)豆油(you)(you)(you)CNF價(jia)(jia)(jia)月均價(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)噸1088美(mei)元(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)9.2%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)16.5%;馬來西亞24度(du)棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)離(li)岸(an)CNF價(jia)(jia)(jia)月均價(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)噸1083美(mei)元(yuan),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)9.8%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)33.2%。
(三)加拿大油菜籽到岸稅后價低于國內,價差較上月縮小
國(guo)內油(you)菜籽(zi)價格平穩運行,進口(kou)的(de)加拿大油(you)菜籽(zi)價格上(shang)漲,致使國(guo)內外價差(cha)縮小。10月份,9%關稅下(xia)的(de)加拿大油(you)菜籽(zi)到我國(guo)口(kou)岸(an)的(de)稅后價格每(mei)斤(jin)2.32元(yuan)(yuan),比(bi)國(guo)內油(you)菜籽(zi)進廠價每(mei)斤(jin)低(di)(di)0.33元(yuan)(yuan),價差(cha)比(bi)上(shang)月縮小0.05元(yuan)(yuan);美(mei)國(guo)墨西哥灣豆油(you)離岸(an)價每(mei)噸(dun)969美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan),折人(ren)民(min)幣(bi)每(mei)斤(jin)3.44元(yuan)(yuan),比(bi)國(guo)內銷區豆油(you)價格低(di)(di)0.64元(yuan)(yuan),價差(cha)比(bi)上(shang)月擴(kuo)大0.08元(yuan)(yuan);天津(jin)口(kou)岸(an)的(de)進口(kou)豆油(you)稅后價每(mei)斤(jin)4.47元(yuan)(yuan),比(bi)當地(di)國(guo)產豆油(you)出廠價每(mei)斤(jin)高0.39元(yuan)(yuan),價差(cha)比(bi)上(shang)月擴(kuo)大0.07元(yuan)(yuan)。
(四)前三季度累計,食用油籽進口量增額減,食用植物油進口量額均同比減少
據(ju)海關統計,9月份我(wo)國進(jin)口食用油(you)(you)(you)籽(zi)1250.16萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)3.9%,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)59.7%;進(jin)口食用植(zhi)物油(you)(you)(you)62.75萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)1.0%,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)31.5%。1-9月累計,我(wo)國進(jin)口食用油(you)(you)(you)籽(zi)8881.47萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)5.9%,進(jin)口額(e)(e)465.28億美(mei)元,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)11.0%;進(jin)口食用植(zhi)物油(you)(you)(you)539.33萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)24.4%,進(jin)口額(e)(e)54.52億美(mei)元,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)30.3%。其中,油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)進(jin)口423.14萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)0.1%,主要(yao)(yao)來(lai)自加(jia)拿大(da)(占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)90.3%)、俄羅(luo)斯(si)(si)(占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)5.4%);棕(zong)櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)進(jin)口206.25萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)33.2%,主要(yao)(yao)來(lai)自印度(du)尼西(xi)亞(占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)72.3%)、馬來(lai)西(xi)亞(占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)27.6%);菜(cai)籽(zi)油(you)(you)(you)進(jin)口131.20萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)19.6%,主要(yao)(yao)來(lai)自俄羅(luo)斯(si)(si)(占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)36.3%)、阿聯酋(占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)10.6%)、白俄羅(luo)斯(si)(si)(占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)9.0%);豆油(you)(you)(you)進(jin)口25.28萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)6.8%。
(五)2024/25年度全球食用油籽庫存消費比上升,植物油庫存消費比下降
據(ju)美國農業部(bu)(USDA)10月(yue)份(fen)預測,2024/25年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du),全(quan)球(qiu)油籽產量(liang)6.87億(yi)噸(dun)(dun),比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)增(zeng)4.5%;消費量(liang)6.63億(yi)噸(dun)(dun),比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)增(zeng)2.6%;貿易(yi)量(liang)2.08億(yi)噸(dun)(dun),比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)增(zeng)1.8%;期末庫存(cun)1.51億(yi)噸(dun)(dun),比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)增(zeng)15.3%;庫存(cun)消費比22.8%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升2.4個百分點。全(quan)球(qiu)食(shi)用植物油產量(liang)2.27億(yi)噸(dun)(dun),比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)增(zeng)2.3%;消費量(liang)2.23億(yi)噸(dun)(dun),比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)增(zeng)2.8%;貿易(yi)量(liang)8655萬噸(dun)(dun),與(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)持平;期末庫存(cun)2880萬噸(dun)(dun),比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)減4.9%;庫存(cun)消費比12.9%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)下(xia)降(jiang)1.0個百分點。
(六)預計近期國內油籽價格逐步止跌企穩,食用植物油價格漲幅有限
國(guo)內市(shi)場:秋收油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)籽集中上(shang)市(shi),供(gong)應量較大,冬季食(shi)(shi)用植物油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)進入(ru)季節性消費旺季,油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)廠開機率逐步(bu)(bu)回升,采購油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)籽數(shu)量增(zeng)多(duo),支撐油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)籽價(jia)格(ge)逐步(bu)(bu)止跌企穩。目前,豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)、棕(zong)(zong)(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)、菜(cai)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)等三大油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)脂商(shang)用庫(ku)存同(tong)比略低,供(gong)給短(duan)(duan)時(shi)偏(pian)緊,對(dui)食(shi)(shi)用植物油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格(ge)形(xing)成(cheng)支撐。隨(sui)著植物油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)產(chan)量增(zeng)加(jia)(jia),預(yu)計價(jia)格(ge)漲幅有(you)限。國(guo)際市(shi)場:2024年全球油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽產(chan)量減少(shao),價(jia)格(ge)有(you)所上(shang)漲,近期隨(sui)著加(jia)(jia)拿大油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽上(shang)市(shi)量增(zeng)多(duo),國(guo)際價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲幅度將逐步(bu)(bu)收窄。棕(zong)(zong)(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)逐步(bu)(bu)進入(ru)季節性生產(chan)淡季,印(yin)度尼西亞貿易部調高了11月毛棕(zong)(zong)(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)參(can)考價(jia)格(ge),泰國(guo)商(shang)務(wu)部限制棕(zong)(zong)(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)出(chu)口以增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)庫(ku)存,預(yu)計短(duan)(duan)期內棕(zong)(zong)(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)供(gong)給偏(pian)緊,短(duan)(duan)期內維持上(shang)漲走勢(shi)。
更多資料請參考中商產業研究院發布的《中國油料(liao)行業市場(chang)前景及投(tou)資機會(hui)研究(jiu)報(bao)告(gao)》,同時中商產業研究院還提供產(chan)(chan)業大數據、產(chan)(chan)業情報、行(xing)(xing)業研(yan)究報告(gao)、行(xing)(xing)業白皮(pi)書、行(xing)(xing)業地(di)位(wei)證明、可行(xing)(xing)性研(yan)究報告(gao)、產(chan)(chan)業規(gui)劃(hua)、產(chan)(chan)業鏈招(zhao)商(shang)圖譜、產(chan)(chan)業招(zhao)商(shang)指引、產(chan)(chan)業鏈招(zhao)商(shang)考察&推(tui)介會、“十五五”規(gui)劃(hua)等咨詢服務。

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