中(zhong)商(shang)情報(bao)網(wang)訊:2024年11月,國(guo)(guo)(guo)內油(you)料油(you)脂價(jia)格(ge)(ge)漲跌互現(xian),國(guo)(guo)(guo)際油(you)脂價(jia)格(ge)(ge)大(da)幅(fu)上漲。國(guo)(guo)(guo)內市(shi)場:雙節臨近,下游市(shi)場節前備貨陸續(xu)(xu)啟動,國(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)油(you)菜(cai)籽和花(hua)生價(jia)格(ge)(ge)有望得到支(zhi)撐。國(guo)(guo)(guo)內食用植物油(you)處(chu)于消(xiao)費旺季,預計(ji)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)穩(wen)中(zhong)有漲。國(guo)(guo)(guo)際市(shi)場:2024/25年度全球油(you)菜(cai)籽產(chan)(chan)量減(jian)少,繼續(xu)(xu)支(zhi)撐價(jia)格(ge)(ge)小幅(fu)上漲。受棕櫚油(you)階段性供給偏緊和政策基本(ben)面影響,價(jia)格(ge)(ge)高位震蕩。
(一)國內油料油脂價格漲跌互現
本月(yue),受(shou)國(guo)際(ji)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)料價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲(zhang)帶(dai)動(dong)和加工(gong)(gong)企業開工(gong)(gong)率提高(gao)影響(xiang),國(guo)產(chan)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格小幅上(shang)漲(zhang)。花生交易清淡,市場主體按需采購,價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格微跌(die)(die)(die)。11月(yue)份(fen),湖北地(di)區油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽進廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)斤2.7元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)1.9%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)12.9%;山東(dong)地(di)區花生仁入廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)斤3.71元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)0.5%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)13.3%。受(shou)國(guo)際(ji)棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)、豆(dou)(dou)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格大幅上(shang)漲(zhang)影響(xiang),國(guo)內食用(yong)植物油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格以漲(zhang)為主;國(guo)產(chan)菜(cai)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)供給(gei)充裕(yu),價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格小幅下跌(die)(die)(die)。11月(yue)份(fen),山東(dong)三級(ji)豆(dou)(dou)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)8378元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)2.7%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)0.5%;天津港(gang)24度棕櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)到港(gang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)10109元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)10.4%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)35.0%;湖北三級(ji)菜(cai)籽油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)9686元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)1.2%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)8.2%;山東(dong)一(yi)級(ji)花生油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)每(mei)(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)13969元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)0.1%,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)(die)(die)11.0%。
(二)國際油脂價格明顯上漲
加拿大油(you)(you)菜籽出口(kou)良好,加之新季(ji)產(chan)(chan)量預期(qi)減少,支撐價格(ge)(ge)上漲(zhang)。受產(chan)(chan)地減產(chan)(chan)、供(gong)需(xu)趨緊預期(qi)增強影響,國際市場(chang)棕櫚油(you)(you)價格(ge)(ge)大幅(fu)上漲(zhang)。11月(yue)(yue)份(fen),加拿大油(you)(you)菜籽CNF價月(yue)(yue)均(jun)價(離岸(an)價+運(yun)費(fei))每(mei)噸(dun)545美(mei)元(yuan),環(huan)比漲(zhang)2.4%,同比跌5.9%;南美(mei)豆油(you)(you)CNF價月(yue)(yue)均(jun)價每(mei)噸(dun)1197美(mei)元(yuan),環(huan)比漲(zhang)10.0%,同比漲(zhang)18.4%;馬來西亞24度棕櫚油(you)(you)離岸(an)CNF價月(yue)(yue)均(jun)價每(mei)噸(dun)1193美(mei)元(yuan),環(huan)比漲(zhang)10.2%,同比漲(zhang)41.5%。
(三)加拿大油菜籽到岸稅后價低于國內,價差較上月縮小
11月份,9%關稅下的加(jia)拿大油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜籽(zi)到我國(guo)(guo)口(kou)岸(an)的稅后價格每斤2.4元,比國(guo)(guo)內油(you)(you)(you)(you)菜籽(zi)進(jin)廠價每斤低(di)0.30元,價差(cha)比上(shang)月縮(suo)小0.03元;美國(guo)(guo)墨西哥灣豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)離岸(an)價每噸(dun)1023美元,折人(ren)民幣每斤3.67元,比國(guo)(guo)內銷(xiao)區(qu)豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)價格低(di)0.52元,價差(cha)比上(shang)月縮(suo)小0.12元;天津口(kou)岸(an)的進(jin)口(kou)豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)稅后價每斤5.05元,比當地國(guo)(guo)產豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)出廠價每斤高0.86元,價差(cha)比上(shang)月擴大0.47元。
(四)1—10月累計,食用油籽進口量增額減,植物油進口量額均減少
據(ju)海關統(tong)計,10月(yue)份我國進(jin)(jin)口(kou)食(shi)(shi)用油(you)(you)籽(zi)(zi)920.97萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)26.3%,同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增67.3%;進(jin)(jin)口(kou)食(shi)(shi)用植物油(you)(you)57.24萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)8.8%,同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)39.4%。1—10月(yue)累(lei)計,我國進(jin)(jin)口(kou)食(shi)(shi)用油(you)(you)籽(zi)(zi)9802.43萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增9.7%,進(jin)(jin)口(kou)額(e)511.74億美元,同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)7.8%;進(jin)(jin)口(kou)食(shi)(shi)用植物油(you)(you)596.57萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)26.1%,進(jin)(jin)口(kou)額(e)60.55億美元,同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)30.5%。其中,油(you)(you)菜籽(zi)(zi)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)507.44萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增18.8%,主要來(lai)自加(jia)拿大(占91.7%)、俄羅斯(占4.6%);棕櫚油(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)231.09萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)35.8%,主要來(lai)自印度尼西(xi)亞(占73.3%)、馬(ma)來(lai)西(xi)亞(占26.6%);菜籽(zi)(zi)油(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)146.85萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)21.3%,主要來(lai)自俄羅斯(占36.7%)、阿聯(lian)酋(占10.9%);豆油(you)(you)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)26.85萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)11.2%。
(五)2024/25年度全球食用油籽庫存消費比上升,植物油庫存消費比下降
據(ju)美國農業部(USDA)11月份預測,2024/25年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du),全(quan)球油籽(zi)產量(liang)6.82億(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)3.7%;消費量(liang)6.61億(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)2.2%;貿易量(liang)2.07億(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.5%;期末庫(ku)存1.48億(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)12.1%;庫(ku)存消費比(bi)(bi)(bi)22.3%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)上(shang)升(sheng)1.9個百(bai)分點。全(quan)球食用植物油產量(liang)2.27億(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.8%;消費量(liang)2.24億(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)2.8%;貿易量(liang)8667萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.7%;期末庫(ku)存2833萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)減5.9%;庫(ku)存消費比(bi)(bi)(bi)12.7%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)下(xia)降1.1個百(bai)分點。
(六)預計國內油料價格以穩為主,食用植物油價格穩中有漲
國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)市場(chang):國(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)現貨剩余(yu)較(jiao)少、供應趨緊(jin),花(hua)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)區(qu)上(shang)貨量(liang)(liang)維持低(di)位,隨著雙節臨近、下(xia)(xia)游市場(chang)節前備貨陸續(xu)啟動,國(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)和(he)花(hua)生(sheng)價(jia)格(ge)有望得到支撐。國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)食(shi)用植物油(you)(you)(you)處于消費旺季(ji),受(shou)原(yuan)料價(jia)格(ge)和(he)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)(nei)需求支撐,國(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)油(you)(you)(you)和(he)花(hua)生(sheng)油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格(ge)預計(ji)穩(wen)中有漲(zhang),豆油(you)(you)(you)和(he)棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格(ge)受(shou)國(guo)(guo)際市場(chang)影響較(jiao)大(da)(da),短期內(nei)(nei)高(gao)位震蕩(dang)。國(guo)(guo)際市場(chang):據美國(guo)(guo)農(nong)業部數據,2024/25年度全球新季(ji)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)為8724萬噸(dun),同比下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)2.94%;加拿大(da)(da)農(nong)業及農(nong)業食(shi)品部11月供需報告顯示,加拿大(da)(da)2024/25年度油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)為1898萬噸(dun),同比下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)1.1%,全球及加拿大(da)(da)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)繼續(xu)支撐價(jia)格(ge)小幅(fu)上(shang)漲(zhang)。棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)主產(chan)(chan)國(guo)(guo)進入減(jian)產(chan)(chan)季(ji),馬來(lai)西(xi)亞棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)協(xie)會(hui)(MPOA)的數據顯示,11月1—20日,馬來(lai)西(xi)亞棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)環比減(jian)少5.19%,受(shou)供需基本面影響,短期內(nei)(nei)棕(zong)櫚(lv)(lv)油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格(ge)震蕩(dang)運(yun)行。
更多資料請參考中商產業研究院發布的《中國油料行業市場(chang)前景及(ji)投資機(ji)會研(yan)究報告》,同時中商產業研究院還提供產業(ye)(ye)大數據、產業(ye)(ye)情(qing)報、行(xing)業(ye)(ye)研究報告、行(xing)業(ye)(ye)白皮書、行(xing)業(ye)(ye)地位(wei)證明、可行(xing)性研究報告、產業(ye)(ye)規(gui)劃(hua)、產業(ye)(ye)鏈招商圖譜、產業(ye)(ye)招商指引、產業(ye)(ye)鏈招商考察&推(tui)介會、“十五五”規(gui)劃(hua)等咨詢服務。

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